Unlike in the previous years, UK bookmakers have not been lucky in 2015 with its ambition of becoming the best political indicator. This is because the betting markets have not been able to predict correctly a political outcome for the second time this year. Could it be that trends have changed?
During the Greek’s referendum held on Sunday last week, UK bookmakers favored a YES verdict. On the other hand, Paddy Power who offered 2/7 with confidence for a Greek Yes, declared its ‘five figures’ payment four days earlier as the UK bookmaker pulled out of its political market.Even so, the bookmaker’s early pay out of five figures was shattered by an uneven 61% win of Greek NO vote in the Sunday’s referendum.
It is with no doubt that Paddy Power testimonial sent to Bloomberg.com, a financial news source after wrong prediction would read: “My Bad.”
The Irish bookmaker claims to have been overexcited in paying out and that after Paddy Power called the Greek referendum wrongly with a lot of confidence, they are feeling like burying their heads under the sand this morning.
Generally, the Greek’s referendum outcome is a clear representation of another failure of political forecasting by bookmakers.
Another example is in April/May during the UK General Election, the bookmakers had also predicted a win for Labour-SNP hung parliament.
Besides that, during the Scottish independence referendum that happened in September 2014, UK bookmakers had been completely off the mark with the results.
All the same, bookmakers should not lose hope and take encouragement from research firms and political polling, which are ever criticized for failing to provide adequate forecasting data and calling the Greek referendum correctly but still keeps going. After all, that is what makes betting interesting.
This article is published in: Special betting
Tags: Greece, PaddyPower, UK
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